Speed track
The race picture is starting to take shape for the Rolex Sydney Hobart, as conditions look set to provide a fast downwind race.
21 December 2017
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The long range forecast is predicting fantastic conditions for the 73rd edition of Australia’s most famous sailing race. The weather gods have blessed the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race with terrific conditions, and the fleet are looking forward to a fast race down to Hobart.
The 25 knot breezes and high pressure system in the Tasman are culminating in conditions reminiscent of last years race, albeit without the exhilarating wind gusts. However, the subtle variations in conditions will be all the difference, in what is shaping up to be an interesting race. On the day it will all come down to tactics, how crews will handle the 25 knots, and navigate the swell and current. A fact Michael Bellingham, navigator of the Ker 46 Patrice is well aware of.
“We have spent the last 6 months working on our boat to go a little better in the light air” he said, at Thursday’s long range weather forecast at the CYCA. “We feel confident we have done that so we are keen to get going”.
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The sprint out of the harbour will be sailed on an East South Easter with 10 knots of breeze. As the fleet make their way down the coast, the wind will swing around to the North East with 15 knots of breeze. Over the course of the race the Nor’Easter will pick up to 25 knots, with most of the race predicted to be sailed in these conditions.
This is good news for the mid-range yachts, with the Cookson 50s and TP52s expected to perform the best. Ichi Ban, Patrice and Indian are firming as strong contenders, but it won’t all be smooth sailing, with the crews having their hands full with conditions on the race down.
Will Oxley, navigator on Matt Allen’s TP52 Ichi Ban is expecting a big battle. “Everyone says how fun it is to race downwind, but in 25 knots on a TP52, that’s a lot of wind on the Eastern side of Bass Strait, so we will be working pretty hard to look after the boat to get through those conditions”.
When asked how the lighter boats will go, Oxley commented: “The competition will be red hot in the 45- and 55-foot range. What it will come down to is boat handling and minimalising sailing damage.”
Black Jack will surely now be considered one of the favourites to take line honours. The race will play to Black Jack’s strength, with the boat optimised for light conditions. The crew have been preparing for light air, performing well in light conditions throughout the Blue Water Point Score.
“these other boats might get the jump on us in the offshore stuff, but it looks like we could be getting to Tasman quite late in the day”, offered Tom Addis, navigator of Black Jack. “If Comanche and those other guys start to struggle in the light air, we may not be far behind them.”
The forecast prediction has certainly left a lot for the crew of LDV Comanche to think about, and especially for navigator Stan Honey. These light conditions wont necessarily favour the ‘air craft carrier’. The winds may be too light to carry them home.
“The conditions will get us down there in good shape, but it doesn’t look good for us in the Derwent. We will get there at exactly the wrong time, Comanche’s not at her best in the light air, so we will probably spend a fair amount of time in the river, waiting for the other guys to catch us.”
The attack plan for the Derwent is a closely guarded secret for all crews, but many are expecting a slow ride through the river if conditions like last year present themselves again. For boats like Ichi Ban and Black Jack, their timing through the heads may just prove the deciding factor.
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