Southerly sets test

Back 2 Black, winner of the season-opening Noakes Sydney Gold Coast Yacht Race, returns to the start line as the pointscore begins to take shape.

The early forecast points to a light north to north-easterly breeze of 5–9 knots around Sydney Harbour and along the coast, building through the morning to 13–19 knots, with stronger pressure offshore.

That should give crews an opportunity to set spinnakers for a VMG run south towards Flinders Islet.

The complication is a southerly change moving north along the NSW coast.

Forecast models differ on exactly when the change will reach Flinders Islet, with the earliest guidance putting its arrival at around 1700hrs. The southerly is forecast to reach the mid-20-knot range, with possible gusts into the low 30s.

For navigators, the timing could transform the race.

A yacht arriving at Flinders Islet as the southerly reaches the turning mark could potentially sail downwind to the island, round it and continue downwind towards Sydney.

Those arriving earlier may have to beat north into the existing northerly while waiting for the change. Boats arriving after the southerly establishes itself could instead face an upwind leg south before reaching the island.

That creates an intriguing handicap contest. The larger, faster yachts are expected to round Flinders Islet ahead of the change and may face an upwind section on the return journey, while boats further back could benefit if the southerly arrives at the right moment.

Among the yachts to watch are Back 2 Black, TP52s Smuggler and Gusto, Cookson 50 Porco Rosso, GP42 Ambition and J/99 Disko Trooper.

The Flinders Islet Race is the shortest event in the six-race Audi Centre Sydney Blue Water Pointscore, which runs through to the Rolex Sydney Hobart Yacht Race in December.

cycaracing.com